Comments on: Wiki’in it. http://www.ryanholiday.net/wikiin-it/ Meditations on strategy and life Mon, 06 Feb 2012 20:25:46 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Andrew http://www.ryanholiday.net/wikiin-it/#comment-8105 Andrew Thu, 06 Dec 2007 16:49:13 +0000 http://dev.ryanholiday.net/wikiin-it/#comment-8105 The first point means that Wikipedia is more comprehensive, but it does NOT mean it's more accurate. It still have a average value of 7. The first point means that Wikipedia is more comprehensive, but it does NOT mean it’s more accurate. It still have a average value of 7.

]]> By: Ryan Holiday http://www.ryanholiday.net/wikiin-it/#comment-8104 Ryan Holiday Thu, 05 Apr 2007 16:44:48 +0000 http://dev.ryanholiday.net/wikiin-it/#comment-8104 Yeah. Pick up Wisdom of Crowds if you want a detailed look, but essentially, Future Games harness the uncanny ability for large groups of people to make accurate predictions from everything to box office returns to possible terrorist attacks. For instance, if they held up a jar of beans, and asked 500 strangers how many were in it--the groups mean guess will be disproportionally accurate. Or sometimes they set up fictional markets (functioning like a stock exchange) and have people buy and sell shares in where they think a terrorist attack will occur or who will win a presidential election. And as the group synthesizes information the shares go up and down and normally illustrate a surprising amount of forbearance. Often more accurate than polls or expert opinion. I'm not quite sure why it is, but the larger the selectorate, the larger the collective wisdom. Yeah. Pick up Wisdom of Crowds if you want a detailed look, but essentially, Future Games harness the uncanny ability for large groups of people to make accurate predictions from everything to box office returns to possible terrorist attacks.

For instance, if they held up a jar of beans, and asked 500 strangers how many were in it–the groups mean guess will be disproportionally accurate. Or sometimes they set up fictional markets (functioning like a stock exchange) and have people buy and sell shares in where they think a terrorist attack will occur or who will win a presidential election. And as the group synthesizes information the shares go up and down and normally illustrate a surprising amount of forbearance. Often more accurate than polls or expert opinion.

I’m not quite sure why it is, but the larger the selectorate, the larger the collective wisdom.

]]> By: cindolent http://www.ryanholiday.net/wikiin-it/#comment-8103 cindolent Thu, 05 Apr 2007 01:24:53 +0000 http://dev.ryanholiday.net/wikiin-it/#comment-8103 Can you be more more specific when you mention 'Future Games'? I've tried looking for what you mean but I only find fleetwood mack and articles about next gen consoles. Can you be more more specific when you mention ‘Future Games’? I’ve tried looking for what you mean but I only find fleetwood mack and articles about next gen consoles.

]]> By: Sean http://www.ryanholiday.net/wikiin-it/#comment-8102 Sean Wed, 04 Apr 2007 14:45:56 +0000 http://dev.ryanholiday.net/wikiin-it/#comment-8102 I remember reading somewhere that Wikipedia is doing something like what you described. They're collecting a series of articles to be edited and "finalized" to be released on CD. Right now it's almost exclusively made of the sorts of articles students would find useful. I remember reading somewhere that Wikipedia is doing something like what you described. They’re collecting a series of articles to be edited and “finalized” to be released on CD. Right now it’s almost exclusively made of the sorts of articles students would find useful.

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